000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH NOT ANALYZED. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS S 
OF EQUATOR E OF 110W. N HEMISPHERE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N110W
TO 04N116W TO 05N130W TO 00N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N137W EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 22N122W. HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THU AS A COLD 
FRONT MOVES TOWARD PAC NW COAST. PRES GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES W OF 120W. ASCAT DATA AT 
1900 UTC SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS NW OF LINE 30N127W TO 20N140W. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST 
OF THE REGION.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED FAR N-NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SWEEP INTO THE REGION...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING AS THE SWELL 
MOVES AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO 
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE TRADE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND AREA OF STRONGER NE WINDS WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA THU WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NLY SWELL INTO 
NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH E-NE WINDS THROUGH 
THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THU EVENING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NE FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THU THEN WEAKEN. EXPECT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
ABOUT 60 HOURS...SAT AND SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL DECREASE SUN.

$$
MUNDELL