000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 02N89W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 02N107W TO 05N116W TO 03N130W TO 00N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N140W EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGE SE 
TO NEAR 20N120W. PRES GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH
NE TRADES W OF 120W. ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF 05N CONVERGING INTO STRONGER NE WINDS BETWEEN
120W AND 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 1740 UTC ALSO SHOWS MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS N OF 27N NEAR 125W. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED FAR N-NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SWEEP INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING
AS SWELL MOVES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. NW SEAS ARE MIXING
WITH NE WIND WAVES BEING GENERATED LOCALLY BY ENHANCED NE TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN 06N AND 23N W OF 120W. 

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING 
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. NE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 
KT W OF 120W AS THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS WILL SHRINK SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA THU...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF N-NE 
SWELL INTO NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN OVER NICARAGUA 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH E-NE WINDS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THU. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOCAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NE FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED 
MORNING. EXPECT 20 KT WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL 
BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL