000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211515 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE FEB 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 02N100W. ITCZ 02N100W TO 07N115W TO 02N120W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N130W. A 70-90 KT UPPER JET CURRENTLY LIES S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO...ROUGHLY FROM JALISCO TO TAMAULIPAS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMAICA DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE E PACIFIC N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS HIGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NWLY WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 117W... WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-12 FT IN NW SWELL. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS STRONG HIGH PRES...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 26N W OF 125W AND FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WITH SEAS IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REDUCE THE GRADIENT WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SHIFT THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES WWD OF 125W. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE PULSES OF NW SWELL WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF 15-18 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH FRESH NE WIND SWELL OVER THE AREA W OF 110W. ...GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESENT GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS FORCING FRESH NE WINDS HERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. $$ FORMOSA