000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N91W TO 06N104W TO 01N124W THEN ITCZ TO 
BEYOND 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 122W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN  
ARIZONA TO 18N115W TO BEYOND 13N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS AND 
MODERATE SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN TEN DEGREES W OF AXIS CURTAILS  
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 11N111W TO 00N100W ASSOCIATED WITH 60 KT 
SW JET CORE HELPS ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND GULF OF MEXICO.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB AT 34M140W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N110W 
AND ENHANCES FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE FROM 06N TO 27N W OF 
125W.  RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE AREA OF TRADE 
WINDS.  

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N115W TO 19N118W CONTRIBUTES 
MECHANICAL UPLIFT TO MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS AND UPPER TROUGH 
COMBINES WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W TO 115W. 

FRESH NW AND N WINDS CONVERGE JUST N OF RIDGE AXIS NEAR COAST OF 
CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS FUNNELING WINDS MOVE S ALONG GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA INCREASING SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT THROUGH 
SAT.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH NLY BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED TO A 
MODERATE N BREEZE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN 
AS HEALTHY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SW GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG TO 
NEAR GALE NLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF MAY CARRY 
BRIEF GUST THAT COULD REACH GALE FORCE LATE SUN.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES