000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161450
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N95W TO 05N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
04N110W 1013 MB TO 01N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N125W TO 
02N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W...THEN SW TO 
10N150W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE 
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW 
MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAR NE WATERS N OF 28N. THE 
FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FRI ACROSS EXTREME SRN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF AREA.  FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N BREEZE BEHIND COLD FRONT TO ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN 
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AS FAR W AS 124W...AS WELL 
AS NORTHERN WATERS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

FURTHER WEST...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 
FROM NEAR HAWAII TO OFF WASHINGTON STATE...WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND 
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. A ZONAL NORTHERN 
STREAM JET WILL PUSH INTO THE NW U.S. THROUGH 48 
HOURS...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND CUTTING OFF A MID/UPPER LOW 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE THU. 1032 MB 
SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE 
LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADES MAINLY FROM 
08N TO 20N W OF 120W. 

A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 
20N115W TO 05N105W...JUST TO THE SW OF THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION 
OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE 
TROPICAL N PACIFIC REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST E OF 115W...AND THE 
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W. THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ARE 
INTERACTING WITH SW FLOW RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH FURTHER 
TO SUPPORT A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 04N111W...WITH A RELATED 
TROUGH EXTENDING FURTHER N TO 12N114W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOW AREAS OF 15 TO 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THIS 
TROUGH AND THE HIGHER PRES TO THE NW...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PROMPTING 
FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA AND WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN