000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
83W...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 05N91W TO 04N97W TO 06N108W TO 
03N123W. ITCZ FROM 03N123W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH FROM 91W TO 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN SW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO S OF 
HAWAII NEAR 06N160W. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MIGRATING AROUND THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
ARIZONA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND 
FURTHER WEST TO 27N130W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF NORTHERN BAJA 
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR 26N WED...THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT 
NE OF THE AREA. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST WED...PROMPTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY 
THU TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC 
WATERS E OF NORTHERN BAJA TO 125W. FURTHER WEST...A 1027 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N140W WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 
BROAD AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 20N W OF 
130W THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT 
AND PERIODS OF 12 TO 15 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO 
THE AREA W OF 110W. 

FURTHER EAST...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
15N115W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 105W...SW OF A STRONG UPPER JET THAT 
EXTENDS THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS FROM 
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W...DUE IN 
PART TO A LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW FLOW DEFINING THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET DYNAMICS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...ALLOWING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO 
FLARE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. 

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.


SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATED 20 KT NORTHERLY 
FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...AND START TO DIMINISH THU.

$$
CHRISTENSEN