000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM COLOMBIA AT 
05N77W TO THE EQUATOR AT 85W...THEN TURNS NW TO 04N92W...THEN SW 
TO 02N101W...NW TO 08N110W...AND SW AGAIN TO 02N131W WHERE IT 
LOSES IDENTITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N79W TO 
01N98W TO 07N108W AND ALSO ALONG 01N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N110W TO 19N105.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 12N108W TO 19N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS AT 32N102W 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 24N107W TO OVER THE E PACIFIC FROM 
13N124W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 06N131W. A SECOND 
UPPER TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY 
FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 
THE TWO TROUGHS...OVER THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 135W AND IS 
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. 

AN UPPER RIDGE IS ERODING OVER THE EXTREME SW PORTION WHILE 
ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSING 
SE OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 27N156W TO 35N140W...AND IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER COLOMBIA WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A 
CREST NEAR 07N121W. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG 
THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. 
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO 
THE S OF 23N AND CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 
22N110W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 28N E 
OF THE RIDGE AT 122W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
TODAY INTO TUE...BUT WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TUE NIGHT. NE 
TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AT 20 KT IN THE AREA 
FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 125W FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH THE NE TRADE SWELL OVER 
THE OPEN WATERS OF ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 93W. THE COMBINED 
SEAS THAT ARE MAXING AT 11 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO AGAIN TO ABOUT 
13 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE NIGHT.   

...GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL FURTHER 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TODAY.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE SHORT 
PERIOD N SWELL THAT WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. 

$$
NELSON