000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 02N96W TO 09N108W TO 
01N136W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
01N136W TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE NE 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
32N113W TO A BASE AT 14N126W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDES 
THE TROUGH...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS 
BETWEEN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SW GEORGIA WITH THE MOISTURE ALSO 
EXTENDING TO THE S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N OF 25N.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
FROM 32N133W TO 15N139W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING E 
OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 130W...AND ALSO 
FROM 15N TO 26N W OF 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE 
FAR E NEAR 10N83W CENTERED OVER THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO 
THE N-NE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE TO 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE DRY AND 
STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AT THE SURFACE...1031 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N146W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE WATERS NEAR 30N140W AND 
CONTINUING TO THE SE TO NEAR 21N108W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS 
IN PLACE OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND 
LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT FRESH 
TRADES ARE PRESENT IN THE AREAS FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 130W AND 
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W...AS INDICATED BY RECENT 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 23N W 
OF 130W BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FRESH NW WINDS ARE IN PLACE N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE RIDGING SW-W OF THIS AREA AND 
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY A RECENT 
SHIP OBSERVATION FROM "WDE5381". THE FRESH NW WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETURN TUE AFTERNOON 
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N107W TO 10N109W. RECENT ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO ONLY 5-15 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS ALSO DISSIPATED.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 
SECONDS COVERS THE WATERS W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL REACH TO 
97W BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 
FT AT ITS EASTERN EXTENT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

...GAP WINDS...
A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS JUST MISSED THE BULK OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS AT LAND-BASED STATION 
IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE 
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY MON 
AFTERNOON.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE 
AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY