000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO03N82W TO 09N104W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N113W TO 
02N130W TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS FROM FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 130W... 
AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 21N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W BETWEEN 1029 
SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 28N142W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ TO THE S. NE-E TRADES AT 20-25 KT WERE CAPTURED BY 
AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES IN THESE AREAS. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST 
TO SHIFT IN AREAL COVERAGE TO THE AREA FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W 
BY SAT EVENING...THEN FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W BY SUN EVENING. 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING N OF 27N/28N WITHIN 120 
NM W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN A SURFACE 
TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOCATED INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO...AND 
BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN EVENING.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N102W TO 13N107W TO 09N110W AND 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH N-NE WINDS N OF TROUGH TO 
18N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
WHILE NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.

OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 FEET OR GREATER COVERS THE WATERS 
W OF A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 09N110W TO 00N120W WITH MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 FEET NEAR 30N140W. THIS SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE COVERING THE WATERS W OF 
102W BY SAT EVENING...AND THEN COVERING THE WATERS W OF 100W BY 
SUN EVENING WHILE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE TO 11 
FT BY THEN.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE 
TO GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING 
THROUGH THE W GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES E OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH 
NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH SUN EVENING IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA SAT MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY