000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 04N82W TO 07N89W TO 
05N100W TO 04N119W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 04N119W TO 01N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W 
AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 25N135W 
TO 21N140W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED ONLY 
LIGHT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. 

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS FROM 04N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND 
ALSO FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
LOCATED JUST E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT NEAR 27N129W AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S. NE-E TRADES AT 
20-25 KT WERE CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS IN THESE AREAS. 
THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT IN AREAL COVERAGE TO THE AREA 
FROM 06N TO 24N W OF 130W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 05N TO 
24N W OF 128W BY SUN AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON 
BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOCATED INLAND OVER WESTERN 
MEXICO...AND BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N101W TO 14N106W TO 10N110W... 
AND A 1628 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 
240 NM W OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE TROUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 FEET OR GREATER COVERS THE WATERS 
W OF A LINE FROM 20N106W TO 00N120W WITH MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 17 FEET NEAR 30N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE COVERING THE WATERS W OF 102W BY SAT 
AFTERNOON AND THEN COVERING THE WATERS W OF 100W BY SUN 
AFTERNOON WHILE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE TO 13 
FT BY THEN.

...GAP WINDS...
AN AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM A SHIP WITH 
CALL-SIGN "ZCDF4" INDICATED N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST TONIGHT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON AS A 
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG 
TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT 
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA SAT MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY