000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 02N95W TO 04N106W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N106W TO 
04N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 
07N E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS NEAR 29N116W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 23N120W. A 1708 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NW-N WINDS SW OF THE LOW IN 
THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. THIS LOW AND TROUGH 
WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING E...WITH 
THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS DIMINISHING. 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS TO THE 
W NEAR 30N129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N140W. 
FRESH TRADES WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 125W 
WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 
LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE AREA OF TRADES 
WILL EXPAND AND WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 
120W BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 04N TO 21N W OF 120W BY FRI 
AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG AS STRONGER HIGH 
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

A 992 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
27N143W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW JUST S OF 
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS 
BETWEEN THIS LOW/COLD FRONT AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH...AND A 
GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE CROSSING 140W AND AS THE 
PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT 
DISSIPATES.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER (MAXIMUM OF 20-21 FT 
NEAR 30N140W) COVERS THE NW HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE 
MAXIMUM DECAYING TO 17 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPING 
LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO FRESH AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL 
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE ADJACENT LAND MASS.

$$
LEWITSKY