000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 03N91W TO 03N103W...THEN 
AS ITCZ AXIS TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 117W. THE FRONT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS HIGHEST WINDS TO 25 KT ARE 
LOCATED WELL W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER NW MEXICO LATER TODAY.

1020 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N129W. THE HIGH 
IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED E-NE TRADES IN THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 130W.
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRES DOMINATES NW PART
BUT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI 
WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER A WIDE SWATH 
OF THE BASIN FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W BY FRI.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEMS IS LOCATED W OF 
THE NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N148W. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL 
GALES IN FAR NW PORTION OF AREA DEFINED BY 30N137W TO 27N140W 
LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT 30-35 KT S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN THIS
AREA FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH THE
FAR NW CORNER EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INTO NW PORTION AND WEAKENS THU.

LARGE NW SWELL TO 20-21 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE GALE FORCE LOW AS 
IT MOVES CLOSE TO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. EXPECT REINFORCING 
NW SWELL TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE BASIN TO AROUND 110W 
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SOUTH IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHICH WILL PERSIST IN AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL