000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N82W TO 03N89W TO 06N115W. ITCZ AXIS 06N115W TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 967 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR 
42N144W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N131W THEN CONTINUES 
SW BEYOND 23N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 
29N W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 23N121W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT 
ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL 
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EXTEND FRESH TRADEWINDS TO 
COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 125W. 

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL 
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM 
WILL CREATE ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE 
INTO THE AREA BY WED WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 19 FT OVER 
THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT 
IS RESULTING IN WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ON TUESDAY...WITH NEAR 
GALE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH WED MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

$$
AL