000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 6 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 04N90W TO 05N101W
THEN...AS ITCZ AXIS TO 07N114W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 968 MB LOW NNE OF AREA NEAR 
40N145W IS PUSHING INTO EXTREME NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. SCAT 
PASSES PAST 6-12 HOURS INDICATE 30-35 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW ARE PRESENT IN NW PORTION. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
CONTINUE BOTH WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT IN S-SW DIRECTION AND 
N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT IN W-NW DIRECTION...THROUGH MON EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS EXTENDING 
FROM 30N126W TO 20N140W LATE MON AND FROM 30N116W TO 23N121W 
LATE TUE THEN WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP SE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES 
IN NW PORTION HAS WEAKENED TRADE WINDS NORMALLY FOUND NEAR 10N E 
OF 115-120W. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT AS 
IT MOVES W N OF 20N THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING TRADES TO REDEVELOP.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK 
WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 
FT. 30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
TUE...BUT MAY SURGE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE DUE TO 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS. 

BY TUE...THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS WILL ARC TO THE W-SW TO 105W 
FROM 10N TO 15N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS WILL ACT 
IN CONCERT WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W LATE MON AND TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT PERIODIC WINDS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA.

$$
MUNDELL