000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 05N100W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
05N100W TO 05N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 983 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 36N142W 
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA PARTICULARLY N OF 26N W OF 136W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 
AROUND 16 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N. 
AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 26N AROUND 180 
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND NOTING 
THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY STILL BE SW 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N W 
OF 130W. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIFT N 
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING 
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. AS WITH THE CURRENT COLD 
FRONT...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING 
FRONT TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE TOMORROW THE 
ACCOMPANYING 986 MB LOW PRES AREA PROGRESSES TO THE NE OF THE 
AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS 
N OF 20N THROUGH TUE...FOLLOWED BY W TO NW FLOW TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE. NW SWELL WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W N OF 05N THROUGH 
TUE. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST 
GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 125W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT 
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO 
35 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 10-13 FT. WINDS OF 30 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY TUE...BUT MAY SURGE AGAIN TO GALE 
FORCE LATE TUE DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL  FUNNEL AGAIN THROUGH THE GAP IN 
TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON 
MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA.    

$$
CHRISTENSEN