000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 06N86W TO 05N97W. ITCZ FROM 
05N97W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1020 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N128W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 125W. 
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKEN ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL 
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE FRONT 
HAS USHERED IN A FRESH SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO THE 
AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH NEAR 15 FT OVER THE NW PART OF 
THE AREA FRI. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TRADEWINDS EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AS FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN VEERS MORE TO THE EAST. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC AND WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG GAP FLOW...POSSIBLY TO 
GALE FORCE...WILL BE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH 
THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA AND A 
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 

$$
AL