000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 07N73W 1005 MB TO 
04N79W TO 06N82W TO 05N92W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ 
AXIS... CONTINUING ON TO 05N104W TO 07.5N113W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 
113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR NE 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
CENTRAL U.S. ALONG 91W/92W...S-SW ACROSS NW LOUISIANA AND 
THROUGH SE TEXAS TO NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N107W. AN 
ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUED ACROSS FAR W 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED NEAR 23N140W...EXTENDING S THEN 
S-SE TO NEAR 08N134W...AND REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS WAS A WEAKENING UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ON A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N127W. 
A VERY SHARP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E TOWARDS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA 
FRI AND SAT AND WILL AID IN KICKING OUT THE CUT OFF LOW AND 
REORGANIZING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATING W PORTIONS OF THE AREA 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH A COLLAPSING 
1029 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 35N133W...WITH RIDGE 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 108W. TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAVE BEGUN TO 
SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...WITH NE TRADEWINDS AT 20 KT FROM 07N 
TO 13N W OF 127W...AND NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 20N W OF 
132W. COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 8 TO 12 FT IN 
MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. N TO NE WINDS 
PRESENTLY DOMINATE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 121W AT 20-25 
KT...WHERE RECENT ALTIMETER MEASUREMENTS VERIFIED SEAS 9 TO 14 
FT. THE FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO GENERATE A 
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION 
MENTIONED ABOVE BETWEEN 114W AND 136W...WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY 
A SHORT WAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
ALONG 140W. THIS PERSISTENT REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION OF THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEGUN TO CREATE IT'S OWN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 06N119W. OTHERWISE...LARGE NWLY SWELLS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS 
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS GALE 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE 
FORCE EXPECTED BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING