000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 06N110W TO 05N117W TO 06N131W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N137W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 04N TO 24N W OF 125W. THIS AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THESE 
TRADEWINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW FLOW WILL 
INCREASE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID 
WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG TROUGHING TO THE 
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FUNNELING THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS SPREADING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W. 
THIS WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH STRONGEST FLOW 
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THU...AND WILL POSSIBLY DELIVER GAP FLOW TO GALE FORCE INTO THE 
THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE THU. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS 
BARELY REACH GALE FORCE AND BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND ENDING 
EARLY FRI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE 
PATTERN AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. A STRONGER 
REINFORCING PUSH IS EXPECTED LATER OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
AL