000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N88W TO 03N103W...THEN 
ITCZ AXIS TO 06N119W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N123W WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE AS A SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. ASCAT PASS AT 
1800 UTC SHOWED FRESH NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A COLD 
FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THROUGH MON...IN STEP WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH. WINDS OFF NORTHERN BAJA WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS S. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS 
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST MON...IT WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SW 
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT. NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA N OF 22N...WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
TO 14 FT AND PERIODS AROUND 10 TO 15 SECONDS.

FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S 
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N W OF 120W. SEAS 
ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL DUE TO PERSISTENT NE TRADES. NW SWELL 
MIXES WITH NE SWELL N OF 11N THROUGH TUE. DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 10N140W IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION CAUSED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OF NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA...SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL