000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 08N85W TO 02N97W 
TO 03N103W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 
03N103W TO 06N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W TO 
28N137W...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE N OF THE AREA 
MOVING INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT 
SAG FURTHER SE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER ENERGY LIFTS NE OF 
THE AREA. HIGH PRES PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 20N W OF 
120W WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 
AROUND 20N W OF 120W. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 15 FT AND 
PERIODS 12 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE 
AREA...REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 
NEAR 08N140W BY EARLY MON. MEANWHILE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA SW TO 15N140W. THERE HAD BEEN A LARGE 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE SIDE OF 
THIS TROUGH N OF 13N W OF 125W...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG TRADE 
WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 120W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE NE 
TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN 
EVENING...THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRAINAGE 
FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO 
FUNNELING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS 
AFTERNOON AS WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND 
VEER MORE TO THE EAST.

$$
CHRISTENSEN