000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 05N88W 
TO 03N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N98W TO 06N122W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
210 NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1022 MB COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 125W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS JUST WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 18N W OF 
125W AND FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...BOTH THE NW WINDS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE 
TRADEWINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXHIBITING STRONG DEFORMATION EXTENDS 
FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 20N124W THEN TO BEYOND 
15N140W. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID 
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE MODERATE ITCZ CONVECTION 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. 

NW SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
INTO THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY STARTING SAT 
MORNING. THE SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 14 FEET SAT EVENING INTO SUN 
MORNING AND SPREAD SE WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...WITH 8 TO 13 FT 
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W BY SUN EVENING.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE NE 
TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN 
EVENING...THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUN. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN 
KATABATIC WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO 
FUNNELING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT 
NIGHT AS WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

$$
AL