000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ 
EXTEND FROM 04N90W TO 06N112W TO 07N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N128W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 05N TO 
20N W OF 115W AS DEPICTED BY LATEST ASCAT PASS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WERE INDICATING A 
4 MB DIFFERENCE IN PRES. THIS IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT 
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AIDED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWS PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WHILE WINDS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED...GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND DATA SHOW 
LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THIS IS MIXING TO THE COAST AND FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI...ALLOWING 
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND FLOW TO PERSIST.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE 
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL