000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W TO 3N92W. ITCZ 3N92W 7N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM
118W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N126W THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
13N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 20N W OF 125W.
A 70-95 KT NLY JETSTREAM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N129W TO 
31N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
AND TROUGH.
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH WITH MAIN 
AXIS ACROSS MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL IS ACROSS THE AREA 
S OF 20N E OF 110W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N107W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 99W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. AN AREA OF 20-25 
KT TRADES IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 
5N-20N W OF 113W.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH STRONG NLY WIND TO 
30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN EARLY FRI.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS