000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W 4N97W. ITCZ FROM 4N97W 3N105W 6N105W 
5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 27N140W. A 70-80 KT 
JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 13N140W NE TO 23N120W 
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 95-100 KT. THE JET CONTINUES NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JETSTREAM. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A POORLY 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 8N101W TO THE THE EQUATOR AT 
100W. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL IS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 85W-115W. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS.

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N118W TO 23N129W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER 
IS NEAR 23N116W. AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 7N-13N W OF 125W 
WILL SPREAD FROM 6N-17N W OF 125W BY 24 HOURS.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE 
AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE BUT STILL REMAIN 
STRONG IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS