000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 6N77W TO 5N102W. ITCZ FROM 5N102W TO 7N117W 
5N125W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
29N131W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION S TO 12N121W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A 70-80 KT JETSTREAM IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
29N136W TO 16N128W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE W 
OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH. 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 83W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 15N E OF 100W. 
THE SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.

A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N132W WITH A TROUGH 
FROM THE LOW TO 25N131W 15N138W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE LOW 
NEAR 27N122W. LARGE NW SWELLS TO 11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N128W 
TO 15N140W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS 
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
DGS