000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 06N103W. ITCZ FROM 06N103W TO 08N110W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW NEAR 10N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF VERTICAL LIFT. A 
RELATIVE WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA W OF 
110W...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 130W. EARLIER ASCAT DATA FROM 1849 UTC SHOWED 20 KT 
TRADE WINDS S OF THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N W 
OF 125W. THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING 
INTO THE CHIVELA PASS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL 
ALLOW FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT. THE GAP FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
WED MORNING THEN DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED MORNING AS THE 
AIRMASS MODIFIES N OF THE AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH...DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW GAP WIND FLOW TO 20 KT 
TO ALSO SET UP OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN