000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 6N77W 4N90W 6N100W. ITCZ FROM 6N100W 8N105W 
6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
29N138W TO 10N140W. A 75-90 KT JETSTREAM AT THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 10N140W TO 9N130W TO 10N110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FLOWING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N TEXAS WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 26N107W. A 95-105 KT 
JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM 26N108W TO  27N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM GUATEMALA NEAR 15N91W TO EQUATOR AT 85W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 85W-105W. THE SUBSIDENCE IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. ELY WINDS 20 
KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 7N-11 W OF 
125W. LARGE NLY SWELLS...8-11 FT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 
120W. 

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N127W TO 24N124W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS