000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N87W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 04N94W TO 07N104W TO 05N120W TO 
07N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATING N OF THE AREA...THE 
AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS HAS DECREASED AND NOW COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 05N TO 11N W OF 130W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WITH PERIODS 
OF 16-19 SECONDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL 
TRAIN...CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS...WITH 
COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W 
OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...REACHING 
THE NW COAST OF S AMERICA TUE MORNING...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
ARE FLOWING THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT.  
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS HAS STARTED 
TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAVE 
DIMINISHED. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 20 KT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
WINDS MAY REACH 20 KT EARLY TUE MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN 
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING. A COLD AIR MASS 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN 
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
RAPIDLY VEER AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A 
RESULT...THE EPISODE OF FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY WED 
NIGHT. 

$$
AL