000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N89W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 08N126W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
123W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 40N132W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE 
WIND FLOW FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 128W. SEAS TO 16 FT IN LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE WHILE 
SLOWLY SUBSIDING...WITH SEAS 8 TO 13 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE 
AREA W OF 110W BY SAT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DESPITE THE VEERED WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE RELATIVE DIFFERENCE IN AIR 
DENSITY BETWEEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN WINDS TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. AS THE AIR MASS TO THE 
N OF THE AREA MODIFIES FURTHER...WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY FRI EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FLOWING THROUGH THE GAP IN THE 
TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINED 
STRONG GAP FLOW FROM PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC COVERS MUCH OF THE 
AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W. THESE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH 
NW SWELL W OF 100W.

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AL