000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W 
TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N126W. LATEST 
1750 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 06N TO 
15N W OF 125W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN STALL AND BECOME 
DIFFUSE. THROUGH THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE ENTERING 
THE FORECAST AREA LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. MEANWHILE 
EXISTING NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 14 
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD 
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROMOTING 
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
DEPICTED BY RECENT 1600 UTC ASCAT PASS. GAP WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
20 KT ARE REACHING AS FAR W AS 107W...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT IN THE 
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING. 

GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO... STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW 
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REACHING GALE FORCE DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED 
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
THU AFTERNOON EXTENDING 200 NM WSW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. FURTHER N...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE 
IMPACTS ALONG WITH 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT 
OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA...AND MERGE WITH GAP FLOW FROM THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH EARLY THU.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...BUILDING N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
COMBINED STRONG GAP FLOW FROM PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 85W AND 110W. THE SWELL 
WILL REACH TO 115W BY THU WHERE IT WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING FRESH NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
THROUGH WED.

$$
AL