000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N98W...THEN ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 05N98W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO UPPER CLOSED 
LOW NEAR 16N137W. LARGE SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING 
VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT E-SE OF THE TROUGH...N OF 
07N BETWEEN 106W AND 136W. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION 
WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 16 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 
11 FT AS THEY REACH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF LARGE SWELL WITH MAX SEAS 20-25 FT WILL REACH 
NW PORTION OF AREA WED MORNING...AND SWEEP SE THROUGH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
COLD FRONT FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
INDUCED LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NLY 
WINDS INCREASING 50-55 KT STORM STRENGTH IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
LATEST GFS 30M GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 23 FT... 
WITH N AND NE SWELL PROPAGATING S ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 113W WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
NE-E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL SPREAD 
N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA WED AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE TUE. 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 14 FT NEAR 09N89W. WINDS WILL FURTHER 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING 
AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUNSET WED.
     
GULF OF PANAMA...
20 KT NW-N WINDS ARE FUNNELING S ACROSS PANAMA OVER THE WATERS N 
OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W INCLUDING GULF OF PANAMA. NLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT WED.

$$
MUNDELL