000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N96W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LONG-LASTING GAP WIND EVENT FINALLY 
CAME TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING...AS N WINDS DROPPED BELOW 20 KT.  
THIS WILL BE A SHORT RESPITE...HOWEVER...AS SOME ENHANCED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BEGIN A NEW EVENT BY SATURDAY MORNING.  A 
RATHER VIGOROUS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BOOST THE 
GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE DURATION OF GALES 
MAY BE LENGTHY...POSSIBLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THIS AREA CONTINUES ITS GAP WINDS AS 
FRESH CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS FUNNEL ACROSS NICARAGUA. THESE SHOULD 
PEAK IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND 25 KT AND 8 FT 
SEAS.  THESE APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...IT IS ANALYZED THAT NW 20 KT WINDS 
CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE GULF N OF 25N THIS MORNING...BUT AS 
USUAL...THERE ARE NO OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM THIS.  AS SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE GULF MOVES EASTWARD...FORCING FOR 
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED 18N136W TO 11N135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 130W AND 
135W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.  FORCING FROM THIS IS DUE 
TO A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 15N143W...WHICH IS 
PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N136W IS 
CAUSING PEAK TRADEWINDS AROUND 25 KT AND PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS NEAR 12 FT. THE TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD SLOWLY AND 
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 12 FT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  THE NEXT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT 
SHOULD REACH THE NW BORDER OF OUR AREA BEGINNING MONDAY.  SEAS 
OVER 12 FT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
LANDSEA