000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05.5N95W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05.5N95W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 10N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WIND SURGE OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO INCREASES WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL VEER ON WEDNESDAY AND 
DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL 
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 
FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY WED NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH NE 
SWELL TO 9 FT GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND FLOW ARE REACHING AS FAR 
WEST AS 110W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT 0100 UTC WINDSAT PASS INDICATED 
FRESH 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN 
AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU 
MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 
THU. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO DIMINISH 
WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT 
LEAST THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDITION OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

HIGH PRES 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N130W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU WHICH WILL DECREASE THE AREAL 
COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADEWINDS...COVERING AN AREA FROM 14N TO 23N 
W OF 130W BY THU NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT CONTINUES 
TO PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W...MIXING WITH NE 
SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW N OF 10N AND WITH SE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N. 

$$
AL