000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272109
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08.5N82W TO 05N93W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 11N125W TO BEYOND 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 09N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE 
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN 
ADDITIONAL WIND SURGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO 
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
VEER ON WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY THU 
AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH NE SWELL TO 9 FT GENERATED BY 
THE GAP WIND FLOW ARE REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 110W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT 1656 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH 
20 KT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF 
20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU MORNING. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT A FEW 
DEGREES WESTWARD. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT 
LEAST WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDITION OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

HIGH PRES 1031 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N130W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST N OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS THROUGH AT 
LEAST THU NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 13 FT CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL 
FROM THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW N OF 10N AND WITH SE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N. 

$$
AL