000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262108
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 05N92W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N92W 
TO 11N121W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT 1538 ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 30 KT 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH THE 5 KT LOW BIAS OF 
THE ASCAT PASS AT THESE WIND SPEEDS...IT IS LIKELY THAT GALE 
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...WITH 20 TO 30 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO 
THROUGH EARLY WED...AND WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 20 KT WED 
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY MODIFIES AND 
WINDS VEER. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH NE TO E SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT 
GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND FLOW WILL PUSH SE AND COVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT 1018 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH 
20 KT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TROUGHING 
OVER MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT 
LEAST WED. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE ADDITION OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

HIGH PRES 1031 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N130W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 115W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
PREVAIL JUST N OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS 
THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

$$
AL