000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 05N85W TO 06N110W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 06N110W TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM OF 13.5N103W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES AT 2350 
AND 0306 UTC RESPECTIVELY SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN NO DATA 
CONFIRMING THE GALES. HOWEVER NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO 
SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING 
THE CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY WED AS THE AIRMASS TO 
THE NORTH GRADUALLY MODIFIES AND SHIFTS E. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH 
NE TO E SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND FLOW WILL 
PUSH SE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 0446 UTC SHOWED 
NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOWER PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO 
AND APPROACHING 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 36N130W. THE HIGH PRES 
WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT BY LATE WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING AT 
20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDITION OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

HIGH PRES 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N130W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N136W TO 09N140W AND WILL DRIFT W 
OF 140W WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 
115W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N130W TO 06N118W...JUST W 
OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N110W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE 
AT THE SURFACE ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15-17 SECONDS WILL INTERACT WITH THE 
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW AND ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AS 
HIGH AS 16 FT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE NW SWELL WILL 
BRING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY LATE TUE
INTO WED. 

$$
COBB