000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N84W TO 06N95W TO 08N115W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
08N115W TO 10N118W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A WINDSAT PASS AT 2350 UTC AND AN ASCAT 
PASS AT 0306 UTC BOTH SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALES WERE DUE TO A SURGE OF COOLER...DRIER 
AND DENSER AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WINDS TO 20 TO 30 KT WILL 
PERSIST HOWEVER INTO WED AS THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY 
MODIFIES AND SHIFTS E. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH NE TO E SWELL OF 8 
TO 10 FT GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND FLOW WILL PUSH SE AND COVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ROUGH 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W 
THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0446 UTC SHOWED NW WINDS 
OF 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
APPROACHING 1032 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 36N132W. THE HIGH PRES WILL 
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
BY 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDITION OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN 
KATABATIC WINDS.

HIGH PRES 1032 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N132W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 08N139W AND WILL DRIFT W 
OF 140W WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 
25N W OF 115W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N130W TO 
06N118W...JUST W OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N110W. 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH 
TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW AND ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AS HIGH 
AS 16 FT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE NW SWELL WILL BRING 
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY LATE TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN