000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N108W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N108W TO 10N118W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1032 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N133W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 115W. NE FLOW TO 20 KT CONTINUES TO BREACH 
GAPS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE ADJACENT 
PACIFIC WATERS. THIS LOCALIZED GAP FLOW WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT THROUGH MON AS WINDS OVER THE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE 
TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT WHILE LIMITED TO THE AREA S OF 27N BY MON 
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TUE NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST 2350 UTC WINDSAT PASS INDICATES 
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE STARTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON EVENING AS THE 
AIRMASS TO THE N MODIFIES. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GENERATE A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 8 FT REACHING AS FAR 
W AS 110W BY 48 HOURS

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDITION OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN 
KATABATIC WINDS.

$$
AL