000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 09N86W TO 08N93W THEN ITCZ  
TO 08N114W TO 10N123W TO 05N137W TO BEYOND 06N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 97W TO 110W.    
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 1046 MB OVER 
ROCKIES FORCE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ENTIRE LENGTH OF 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCED GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 
LAST 24 HRS.  WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES 
CENTER SHIFTS E AND WINDS BACK MORE TO THE E.  STRONG NW BREEZE 
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO FRESH WITH 8 FT SWELLS LEFT N OF 18N E OF 110W.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB N OF AREA PROMPTS FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN W OF 110W.  SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY 
FROM 15N128W TO 08N129W INTENSIFIES AS IT DRIFT W INCREASING 
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND SEAS TO 18 FT.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
SOLUTIONS PLAY ON BOTH SIDES OF THRESHOLD...BUT FORECAST RELIES 
ON EUROPEAN AND ENSEMBLE RATHER THAN THE AGGRESSIVE GFS.  TROUGH 
APPROACHES 140W IN 48 HRS ALTHOUGH TRADEWINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT JUST ENDED AS CULPRIT HIGH PRES 
MOVES E OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY INCOMING 
SIMILAR SYSTEM PROMPTING NEW EVENT WITHIN 36 HRS. WINDS EXPECTED 
TO REACH GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN 
PLAINS...WHICH FORCES FUNNELING WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEEP 
ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  WINDS PEAK DURING COOL 
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT DURING UNDER 
DAYTIME HEATING. 

H
$$
WALLY BARNES