000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84.5W TO 06N92W TO 
08N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N100W TO 10N112W WHERE 
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ITCZ AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH. 
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N122W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH 
TRADE WINDS THAT EXTENDS AS FAR E AS 110W. THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 
THU...MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF TRADE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
FURTHER BUILD N OF THE AREA FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN OF THE TRADEWINDS...AS 
WELL AS INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS BY FRI. 

CONTINUED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS HAS HELPED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM 13N114W TO 09N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL 
BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. THE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION OF THE CONUS WILL INCREASE NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 27N BY THU EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N BY EARLY FRI. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ANTICIPATED BY FRI MORNING. 

$$
AL