000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERS EPAC NEAR 09N84W TO 06N91W TO 06N108W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 08N117W TO 09N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 84W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS W OF 124W. ...DISCUSSION... LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NW MEXICO TO NEAR 20N116W IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING ZONAL WITH PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE DROPPING SE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO BACKSIDE OF MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT E SUN. DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY FRI...BEFORE WINDS ABATE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY SAT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N139W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERALLY W OF 115W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS 20-25 KT W OF 124W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS/SEAS NEXT 24-36 HOURS BETWEEN 10-18N W OF 125W BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS QUICKLY AND FRESH TRADES BECOME CONFINED TO W OF 137W BY 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SAT MORNING...AND LIKELY BUILDING TO GALE FORCE SUN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN 48 HOURS... BECOMING 20-25 KT ON SAT. HIGH PRES TO THE NW CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL SUPPORT 20 KT NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT EARLY FRI. $$ STRIPLING 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151603 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERS EPAC NEAR 09N84W TO 06N91W TO 06N108W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 08N117W TO 09N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 84W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS W OF 124W. ...DISCUSSION... LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NW MEXICO TO NEAR 20N116W IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING ZONAL WITH PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE DROPPING SE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO BACKSIDE OF MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT E SUN. DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY FRI...BEFORE WINDS ABATE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY SAT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N139W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERALLY W OF 115W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS 20-25 KT W OF 124W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS/SEAS NEXT 24-36 HOURS BETWEEN 10-18N W OF 125W BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS QUICKLY AND FRESH TRADES BECOME CONFINED TO W OF 137W BY 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SAT MORNING...AND LIKELY BUILDING TO GALE FORCE SUN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN 48 HOURS... BECOMING 20-25 KT ON SAT. HIGH PRES TO THE NW CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL SUPPORT 20 KT NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT EARLY FRI. $$ STRIPLING