000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W THEN ITCZ TO 08N133W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N OF TROUGH 
E OF 101W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NW MEXICO IS 
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING ZONAL WITH 
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI 
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFTING E NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS SE FROM 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N140W. 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ 
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. ASCAT PASSES AT 0500 
AND 0700 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT NE WINDS FROM 13N TO 24N W OF 120W.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS/SEAS NEXT 24-36 HOURS BETWEEN 
10-18N W OF 120W.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...BECOMING 20-25 KT ON SAT.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N-CENTRAL MEXICO WILL 
SUPPORT 20 KT NW WINDS IN SRN HALF OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.

$$
MUNDELL