000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 06N96W THEN ITCZ TO 06N115W TO 
09N130W TO 08N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SW ARIZONA TO 13N126W 
SEPARATES BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 
SECOND ONE WELL W OF BASIN BUT THAT ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE E 
OF 140W.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND LONGWAVE BASE NEAR 
32N114W BRINGS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 25N FROM 114W TO 125W.  
SHORTWAVE ALLOWS WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER BASIN LATE THU NIGHT 
JUST N OF 28N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO SPINE BRINGS STRONG NW WINDS 
INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING TO 8 
FT.  EVENT IS SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS BACK TO SW THU NIGHT AND 
DIMINISH.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1028MB HAS RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PROMPTING FRESH NE TRADE BREEZE THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG N BREEZE LINGER ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS WEAKENED AND WINDS IN SW GULF OF 
MEXICO VEER SE EFFECTIVELY ENDING EVENT OVER THE ISTHMUS. 

STRONG E-NE WINDS SEEP THROUGH NICARAGUA FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND THU DIMINISHING FRI AS ATLC 
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT FURTHER E...DIMINISHING TRADES OVER 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES