000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N89W THEN ITCZ FROM 06N84W TO 
08N117W AND FROM 09N132W TO 08N138W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 
06 96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS 
W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N115W TO 14N128W 
SPLITS BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 
SECOND RIDGE WELL W OF BASIN BUT THAT ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOIST 
AIR MASS E OF 140W.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND LONGWAVE 
BASE NEAR 34N114W BRINGS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 25N FROM 115W TO 
125W.  SHORTWAVE ALLOWS WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER BASIN LATE IN 
FORECAST PERIOD JUST N 27N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA AND ARIZONA ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS 
TO ENTER GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING TO 
8 FT.  EVENT IS SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS BACK W TO SW BY END OF 
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1030MB HAS RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PROMPTING FRESH NE TRADE BREEZE THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.

N STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS LINGER ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS WEAKENED AND WINDS IN SW GULF
OF MEXICO VEER SE EFFECTIVELY ENDING EVENT OVER THE ISTHMUS. 

STRONG E-NE WINDS SEEP THROUGH NICARAGUA FROM THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND THU DIMINISHING FRI 
AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT FURTHER E...DIMINISHING TRADES 
OVER CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES