000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 06N95W THEN ITCZ TO 
07N120W TO 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 114W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 134W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH MID SECTION OF BASIN 
ALONG 114W TO 10N117W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS S OF 17N FROM 93W TO 
130W EXCEPT SMALL BATCH YIELDING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE  FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH BASE NEAR 32N125W PACKS ENOUGH ENERGY TO KICK WINDS 
UP JUST N OF 26N E OF 130W.  ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 07N134W EXTEND RIDGE N TO 32N137W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW 
ALONG RIDGE CREST N OF 17N BUT EVAPORATES AS IT APPROACHES DEEP 
TROUGH AXIS.  SECOND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA ADVECTS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PROMPTING MINOR ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 93W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...
SURFACE LOW PRES 1013 MB AT 35N114W WITH WEAK TROUGH S ALONG 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PROMPTS FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST 
THAT ENCROACHES INTO BASIN N OF 26N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 
FT.  LOW PRES MOVES E AND BRING FRESH NW WINDS INTO GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE WED AND THU.  

STRONG N BREEZE CONTINUE ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THU...ALTHOUGH SEAS LINGER AT 
8-9 FT BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES