000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N89W TO 06N102W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N102W TO 10N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 86W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED
NEAR 32N120W...IDENTIFIED BY A MASS OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS. A 
SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ROTATING S OF THE LOW ARE SPREADING 
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0600 UTC SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-30 KT 
WINDS W OF THE LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. THIS LONG FETCH 
OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WINDS IS GENERATING N-NW SWELL WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 15-16 FT NEAR 30N. IN ADDITION...STRONG SW WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NW MEXICO LATER TODAY...WITH WINDS 
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISHING OVER THE REGION W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.

A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W E-SE TO NEAR 18N116W. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND ITCZ ALONG 9N IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE-E
WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

STRONG N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE FROM THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A PERSISTENT PRES GRADIENT OVER 
SRN MEXICO AND JUST INLAND OF THE GULF. SEAS UP TO 12 FT ARE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NIGHT.

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...S-SW MONSOON WINDS TO 
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W THROUGH THU.
 
$$
MUNDELL