000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON DEC 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 07N106W TO 09N119W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-84W ...BETWEEN 130W-136W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 136W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-114W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA S THROUGH 32N122W TO 25N122W TO NEAR 17N122W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG WLY UPPER WINDS ARE NOTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE TROUGH. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT EXTENSIVE DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE THEN ACHIEVES MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NE PORTION AS IT RIDES UP OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYLONE NEAR 13N112W...AND THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO OVER NRN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL U.S. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. TUE THROUGH WED. THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N112W EXTENDS A RIDGE ENE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO...AND ANOTHER RIDGE W TO NEAR 120W. EXTENSIVE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PORTION. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N140W SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N128W AND TO 18N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 17N. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE WITH ITCZ ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS SUSTAINING FRESH NE-E WINDS FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 136W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 19N BETWEEN 128W-136W WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT IN A NW SWELL. WITH THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD...A 1026 MB HIGH WILL THEN DROP S TO NEAR 32N142W. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NE-E WINDS TO FURTHER EXPAND FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N W OF 130W IN 24 HRS...AND FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 121W BY 48 HRS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME TO ABOUT 9 FT BY 48 HRS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD FROM THE CHIVELA AND INTO THE GULF WHERE THEY ACCELERATE TO BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DUE TO A PERSISTENT PRES GRADIENT OVER SRN MEXICO AND JUST INLAND THE GULF KEEPS CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME THERE. SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 20-25 KT WED. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS SPUN OFF A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH SE TO FAR NW BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SE TO NEAR 25N119W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING SWD TO THE W AND NW OF THE TROUGH WITH WINDS OF UP 30 KT AND SEAS TO 14 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE SE TO FAR NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUE. NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W ON TUE WITH NW SWELLS LEADING TO 10 TO 15 FT BY MON AFTERNOON BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE N TO NE AT 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A NW TO N SWELL. SW TO W WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO THE E OF THE FRONT AND S OF THE LOW ON MON WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A NW SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PULSATE ON AND OFF PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA FOR MENTION IN THE NE PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ AGUIRRE