000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N93W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 06N93W TO 09N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS A 110 
KT JET MAX DIVING S-WARD ALONG 130W. THIS WILL INDUCE FORMATION 
OF SURFACE LOW FROM A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR LOS ANGELES WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THAT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES S TOWARD 
SAN DIEGO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SW TO 
NEAR 22N120W BY EARLY TUE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A 
STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 35N140W WILL SUPPORT 20-30 KT NWLY WINDS W 
OF FRONT WITH N SWELLS LEADING TO 10 TO 15 FT BY THIS EVENING. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N138W SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 
24N130W TO 20N1190W. COMBINATION OF RIDGE WITH ITCZ ASSOCIATED 
LOW PRESSURE IS SUSTAINING FRESH E-NE WINDS FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 
128W WITH 9-11 FT SEAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E-WARD ACROSS 
SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA MON HIGH PRES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
NEAR 35N140W. THIS WILL ACT TO EXPAND THE AREA NE-E TRADE WINDS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD THROUGH THE GULF AS A STRONG 
PRES GRADIENT OVER SRN MEXICO AND JUST INLAND THE GULF DOMINATES 
THE WIND REGIME THERE. SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE 
CHANGE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... 
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY TUE AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PULSATE 
PRIMARILY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IN DRAINAGE 
FLOW. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COVER A LARGE 
ENOUGH AREA FOR SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. BUT 
GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL