000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N864 TO 06N100W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...EXTENDING TO 
10N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N118W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS 
BETWEEN A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA AT 46N138W 
AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  NE TRADEWINDS ARE 
GENERALLY BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20 KT 
WINDS BETWEEN 18N AND 22N IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR 
AREA. SEAS THERE ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND 
NW SWELL THAT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W.  THESE SWELL 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TIME AND ARE RESTRICTED TO W OF 
130W BY 48 HOURS.  THE NEXT LARGE SWELL EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE 
FRIDAY WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER 
OF THE AREA.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N114.5W EMBEDDED ALONG THE 
ITCZ MOVING W AROUND 10 KT...WITH WINDS 20-25 KT OCCURRING 
WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING 
MORE CONCENTRATED AND PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE 30 
KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS STRONGLY SUGGESTS 
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 0503 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED STRONG NLY 
WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS S OF 26N-27N. THE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND 
A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THIS REGION INCREASING 
WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 
SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SPILLING OUT 
JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A ZONE OF NE-E WINDS 
WILL BE FORCED ACROSS AND THROUGH PASSES IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W OF THE 
PENINSULA THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING 20-25 
KT WINDS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL AREAS OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT 
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N 
OF THE AREA. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
THU AFTERNOON...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. IT IS OF 
NOTE THAT THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS AREA PREDICTING THE HIGHEST 
WINDS...45 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ON THE LOW 
END WITH ONLY 30 KT.  FOR NOW...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PEAKS AT 
40 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT 
IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GIVEN THAT 
THESE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST.

$$
STRIPLING