000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 05N100W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 10N109W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 08N115W TO 07N127W AND RESUMES AGAIN FROM 09N133W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
ITCZ W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS 
BETWEEN A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA AT 45N137W 
AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  NE TRADEWINDS ARE 
GENERALLY BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20 KT 
WINDS BETWEEN 18N AND 25N IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR 
AREA.  SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL THAT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W.  THESE SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TIME AND ARE RESTRICTED TO W OF 130W BY 
48 HOURS.  THE NEXT LARGE SWELL EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FRIDAY 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR 
AREA.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N113W EMBEDDED ALONG THE 
ITCZ MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED 
IN THE SECTION ABOVE.  DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE 
CONCENTRATED AND PERSISTENT TODAY...THE 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR 
AS ANALYZED BY CIMSS STRONGLY SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF 
THE SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
AREA OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE 
ENTIRE GULF...AS SEEN WITH A JUST RECEIVED WINDSAT PASS AT 
0050Z.  THE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A PRESSURE GRADIENT 
SETTING UP FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THIS REGION INCREASING WINDS TO 
UP TO 30 KT BY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD 
TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SPILLING OUT JUST TO THE S 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A ZONE OF NE-E WINDS WILL BE FORCED 
ACROSS AND THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W OF THE 
PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE 
NIGHT...PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY 
FOR SMALL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF LATER TODAY 
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT 
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF THE AREA. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GALES IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN 
ISSUED. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE GFS IS PREDICTING THE HIGHEST 
WINDS..45 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ON THE LOW 
END WITH ONLY 30 KT.  FOR NOW...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PEAKS AT 
40 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT 
IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GIVEN THAT 
THESE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST.

$$
LANDSEA